Market Mania: A Squirrel on Caffeine
A Week of Mixed Signals
The stock market's been doing its best impression of a caffeinated squirrel this past week. We saw the Dow Jones hit record highs, only to watch growth stocks get hammered. The Dow ultimately advanced 0.3%, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, but the Nasdaq composite took a 0.45% hit. Small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000, got absolutely demolished, giving up 1.8%.
Even the equal-weight ETFs, usually a haven of stability, weren't immune. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) dipped 0.1% and the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) fell 0.4% last week. The 10-year Treasury yield popped 5.5 basis points to 4.15%. U.S. crude oil futures, meanwhile, rose 0.6% to $60.09 a barrel. It's a mixed bag, to say the least.
Then you have the sector ETFs, which paint an even more chaotic picture. Tech's software side (IGV) retreated 1.9%, while semiconductors (SMH) only lost 0.9% (Nvidia is its top holding, naturally). Energy (XLE) popped 2.8%, while Metals & Mining (XME) sank 1.8%. Healthcare (XLV) ran up 3.9%, while Industrials (XLI) declined 0.9%. It’s enough to give anyone whiplash.
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Nvidia's Earnings: More Than Just Numbers on a Screen
The Nvidia Question
Amidst all this volatility, one name looms large: Nvidia. Their earnings are due Wednesday night, and the market's practically holding its breath. The stock rose 1.1% to 190.17 last week.
The chatter online is deafening. Some are saying a positive reaction to Nvidia's earnings could trigger huge gains for the stock and the entire AI ecosystem. Others are bracing for widespread selling if the numbers disappoint. It’s all riding on this one report.
Tech Futures Rise As Google Jumps; Nvidia Earnings Loom - Investor's Business Daily
What’s interesting is how this single company has come to represent the entire AI narrative. It's become a bellwether, and that's dangerous. A single data point shouldn't dictate the fate of an entire sector, but that's where we are.
CEO Jensen Huang has been very vocal about the high demand for Nvidia's AI processors, but the real question is whether they can actually ramp up supply enough to meet it. This isn't just about demand; it's about execution. Can they deliver? That's the number I'll be watching most closely. (Not just revenue or EPS, but actual units shipped.)
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new $4.9 billion stake in Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and Google stock rose nearly 4% early on November 17, 2025. Tesla stock, meanwhile, tumbled 5.9% for the week. Bitcoin miner Iren (IREN) got hammered, diving 25.7% last week. Valero Energy stock climbed 3.4% on Friday to 181.76. MongoDB stock fell 12.3% to 352.61 for the week. Nu Holdings stock dipped 0.3% to 15.82 for the week. GE Aerospace stock edged down 0.8% to 304.82 for the week.
All Eyes on Supply Chains
The market's reaction to Nvidia's earnings will be a referendum on the AI hype. But it's important to remember that the hype is just that – hype. The underlying technology is real, but the valuations are often divorced from reality.
I’ve looked at hundreds of these earnings reports, and this one feels different. The level of anticipation is palpable, almost feverish. This reminds me of the dot-com bubble, where a handful of companies were seen as the key to the future.
The real story here isn't just about Nvidia's numbers; it's about the broader AI ecosystem. Can these companies actually deliver on their promises? Can they translate the hype into tangible results? And, perhaps most importantly, can they build sustainable businesses that aren't entirely dependent on Nvidia's hardware?
A Reality Check
The market is behaving like a gambler on a hot streak, doubling down on every hand. But the odds are always stacked against you. Nvidia's earnings will either confirm the AI narrative or expose its weaknesses. Either way, it's a high-stakes game, and investors should proceed with caution.
